Primary Predictions of the Past

In the last 50 years, how often did each state predict the eventual nominee?

Democratic Primaries & Caucuses

State Date 2016 Primary/Caucus Percent Winner Became Nominee
Kansas MARCH 5 100%
Wyoming APRIL 9 88.89%
Missouri MARCH 15 85.71%
Virginia MARCH 1 85.71%
Minnesota MARCH 1 85.71%
Georgia MARCH 1 85.71%
Illinois MARCH 15 77.78%
New Mexico JUNE 7 75%
New York APRIL 19 75%
Idaho MARCH 22 75%
Montana JUNE 7 71.43%
Delaware APRIL 26 71.43%
Connecticut APRIL 26 71.43%
Washington MARCH 26 71.43%
Hawaii MARCH 26 71.43%
Maine MARCH 6 71.43%
Louisiana MARCH 5 71.43%
Colorado MARCH 1 71.43%
Arkansas MARCH 1 71.43%
Alabama MARCH 1 71.43%
New Jersey JUNE 7 66.67%
Oregon MAY 17 66.67%
Pennsylvania APRIL 26 66.67%
Nebraska MARCH 5 66.67%
Rhode Island APRIL 26 62.50%
Maryland APRIL 26 62.50%
North Carolina MARCH 15 62.50%
Michigan MARCH 8 62.50%
Texas MARCH 1 62.50%
Tennessee MARCH 1 62.50%
Washington D.C. JUNE 14 57.14%
North Dakota JUNE 7 57.14%
Kentucky MAY 17 57.14%
Utah MARCH 22 57.14%
Mississippi MARCH 8 57.14%
California JUNE 7 55.56%
Wisconsin APRIL 5 55.56%
Ohio MARCH 15 55.56%
Florida MARCH 15 55.56%
Vermont MARCH 1 50%
Iowa FEBRUARY 1 50%
South Dakota JUNE 7 44.44%
Indiana MAY 3 44.44%
Massachusetts MARCH 1 44.44%
New Hampshire FEBRUARY 9 44.44%
Alaska MARCH 26 42.86%
Oklahoma MARCH 1 42.86%
Arizona MARCH 22 37.50%
South Carolina FEBRUARY 27 37.50%
West Virginia MAY 10 33.33%
Nevada FEBRUARY 20 28.57%

Republican Primaries & Caucuses

State Date 2016 Primary/Caucus Percent Winner Became Nominee
Kentucky MARCH 5 100%
Illinois MARCH 15 100%
Wisconsin APRIL 5 100%
New York APRIL 19 100%
Maryland APRIL 26 100%
Oregon MAY 17 100%
New Jersey JUNE 7 100%
Washington D.C. MARCH 12 87.5%
Florida MARCH 15 87.5%
Ohio MARCH 15 87.5%
Pennsylvania APRIL 26 87.5%
Indiana MAY 3 87.5%
Nebraska MAY 10 87.5%
Texas MARCH 1 85.71%
Vermont MARCH 1 85.71%
Virginia MARCH 1 85.71%
Idaho MARCH 8 85.71%
North Carolina MARCH 15 85.71%
Delaware APRIL 26 85.71%
Rhode Island APRIL 26 85.71%
New Mexico JUNE 7 85.71%
New Hampshire FEBRUARY 9 75%
West Virginia MAY 10 75%
California JUNE 7 75%
Nevada FEBRUARY 23 71.43%
South Carolina FEBRUARY 20 71.43%
Arkansas MARCH 1 71.43%
Oklahoma MARCH 1 71.43%
Tennessee MARCH 1 71.43%
Maine MARCH 5 71.43%
Mississippi MARCH 8 71.43%
Utah MARCH 22 71.43%
Connecticut APRIL 26 71.43%
Washington MAY 24 71.43%
North Dakota JUNE 7 71.43%
South Dakota JUNE 7 62.50%
Alabama MARCH 1 57.14%
Alaska MARCH 1 57.14%
Colorado MARCH 1 57.14%
Georgia MARCH 1 57.14%
Kansas MARCH 5 57.14%
Louisiana MARCH 5 57.14%
Hawaii MARCH 8 57.14%
Michigan MARCH 8 57.14%
Missouri MARCH 15 57.14%
Arizona MARCH 22 57.14%
Wyoming APRIL 9 57.14%
Montana JUNE 7 57.14%
Massachusetts MARCH 1 50%
Iowa FEBRUARY 1 42.86%
Minnesota MARCH 1 42.86%

Analytics@American

Data sourced from 1968-2012 Federal Election Commission Public Records


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